Mal Boyle's Placepot Picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: October 10 2015, 8:36 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle brings you his selections for Saturday afternoon's card at Newmarket.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of How To Win at the Tote Placepot and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis.

He'll assess the next day's leading meeting the previous afternoon/evening before posting selections the following morning, usually by 1000 BST.

Newmarket Selections

Race 1 (2.00pm): 4 (Mise En Rose), 8 (Make Fast) & 10 (Forgotten Wish)
Race 2 (2.35pm): 6 (Ibn Malik), 1 (Beacon Rock) & 2 (Clear Cut)
Race 3 (3.10pm): 3 (Emotionless) & 2 (Air Force Blue)
Race 4 (3.50pm): 34 (Bayan), 29 (Low Key) & 30 (Cassells Rock)
Race 5 (4.25pm): 4 (Landofhopeandglory) & 5 (Move Up)
Race 6 (5.00pm): 5 (Golden Amber), 11 (Effectual) & 17 (Stroll Patrol)

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2014: £3,201.20 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2.00 Charlie Appleby saddled the inaugural runner-up last year and the team could go one better this time around with MISE EN ROSE who ran really well to finish third (beaten half a length) at Pontefract on her turf debut following decent efforts on two all-weather assignments which yielded one success. Andrew Balding's debut winner MAKE FAST could be anything, whilst the pick of Mark Johnston's trio should prove to be his hat-trick seeker DAAWAA. Richard Hannon's Lilbourne Lad representative FORGOTTEN WISH receives the overnight reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three inaugural 7/1 co favourites finished in the frame last year when securing the silver medal behind the 16/1 winner. The other horse to claim a toteplacepot position was sent off at 25/1.

Newmarket record of runners in the first race:

Renfrew Street (1 run - unplaced)

2.35 Charlie Hills looks like he is going to pass his best tally for a season this year and in IBN MALIK, Charlie has a decent chance to record a victory on Cesarewitch day at 'headquarters'. The two Irish challengers BEACON ROCK and CLEAR CUT will probably offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Prices of win and placed horses:
2014: 10/1-33/1-11/4*
2013: 15/2-6/5*-16/1
2012: 5/2**-5/2**-7/1
2011: 8/1-5/1-11/8*
2010: 33/1-9/1-7/2
2009: 9/1-15/2-9/2
2008: 9/4*-11/4-4/1
2007: 4/7*-16/1-5/1
2006: 6/4*-25/1-4/1
2005: 20/1-13/8*-9/1

Newmarket record of runners in the second race:

Gifted Master (3 runs - 2 wins & 1 placed)

3.10 Jim Bolger has saddled five of the last nine winners, though the stable looks to be up against it this time around with their course and distance winner SANUS PER AQUAM taking on EMOTIONLESS and AIR FORCE BLUE. That said, Jim's raider could outrun his odds by claiming a toteplacepot position, probably behind the two main protagonists who are listed in order of preference. EMOTIONLESS went straight into my notebook as one to follow until beaten when scoring on the July course here at Newmarket in August, whilst AIR FORCE BLUE is attempting to become Aidan O'Brien's third winner of the Dewhurst during the last seven years.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals, whilst seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade..

Newmarket record of runners in the third race:

Adventurous (1 run - unplaced)
Sanus Per Aquam (1 run - won)
Twin Saila (1 run - placed)

3.50 Recent weight, starting price and Cesarewitch age trends have been shot to pieces during the last few years (I try to be as honest as possible) whereby I am less than confident about the outcome this time around. I’m offering five horses against the field from a toteplacepot perspective, namely BAYAN, LOW KEY, CASSELLS ROCK, RENETTI and CINNILLA. I doubt that I will become involved in trying to name the winner come sun up, even though the first-named trio particularly carry some confidence this side of midnight.

Prices of win and placed horses:
2014: 10/1-25/1-5/1*-16/1
2013: 66/1-20/1-10/1-20/1
2012: 66/1-7/1*-9/1-14/1
2011: 25/1-16/1-20/1-14/1
2010: 16/1-33/1-50/1-14/1
2009: 9/2*-14/1-16/1-16/1
2008: 50/1-15/2-10/1-7/2*
2007: 14/1-33/1-6/1**-25/1
2006: 9/2*-25/1-100/1-25/1
2005: 10/1-20/1-50/1-25/1
2004: 16/1-10/1**-50/1-33/1
2003: 12/1-33/1-50/1-8/1
2002: 12/1-16/1-66/1-12/1
2001: 14/1-66/1-33/1-66/1
2000: 11/1-40/1-9/2*-10/1
1999: 7/1-50/1-25/1-100/1
1998: 11/1-14/1-13/2-10/1
1997: 16/1-5/1*-12/1-10/1

Newmarket record of runners in the fourth race:

Oriental Fox (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)
Angel Gabrial (2 runs - No wins - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Aussie Reigns (2 runs - both unplaced)
Nearly Caught (1 run - unplaced)
Quick Jack (1 run - unplaced)
First Mohican (1 run - unplaced)
Noble Silk (1 run - unplaced)
Gabrial's King (2 runs - both unplaced)
Moscato (1 run - unplaced)
Norab (1 run - unplaced)
Montefeltro (1 run - unplaced)
Gavlar (1 run - unplaced)
Teak (2 runs - both unplaced)
Right To Reign (1 win & 1 unplaced)
Comminicator (2 runs - both unplaced)
Cimilla (1 run - placed)
Low Key (1 run - won)
Cassells Rock (1 run - unplaced)
Grumeti (1 run - unplaced)
Deauville Dancer (1 run - unplaced)
Knightly Escapade (2 runs - No wins - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

4.25 LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY is my idea of Aidan O'Brien's best hope of a winner on Saturday's card with the High Chaparral colt expected to come on a bundle for the step up in trip. Saeed Bin Suroor's raider MOVE UP might the split the Irish challenge with Jim Bolger holding an each-way chance via his New Approach filly GLAMOROUS APPROACH.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last nine contests, whilst every winner during the last decade scored at 9/1 or less.

Newmarket record of runners in the fifth race:

Clever Conversation (1 run - placed)

5.00 William Haggas saddled four consecutive winners of this event between 2007 and 2010 and the trainer has offered the green light to his Iffraaj filly MUFFRI' HA this time around. A winner of two of her 11 assignments thus far, Pat Cosgrave's mount has also secured two silver medals in the process and she looks sure to figure prominently on behalf of the team. Three-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 renewals for good measure, statistics which also bring EFFECTUAL and course and distance winners LACING and TERROR into the overnight mix. It would also be a little churlish to rule out STROLL PATROL, given Johnny Murtagh's record when raiding from across the Irish Sea.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last five contests, whilst seven of the 11 market leaders during the last decade finished in the frame.

Newmarket record of runners in the toteplacepot finale:

ZuhoorBaynoona (1 run - unplaced)
Cordial (1 run - unplaced)
Golden Amber (1 run - won
) Johara (1 run - unplaced)
Minalisa (1 run - unplaced)
Souville (1 run - unplaced)
Lacing (3 runs - 1 win - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Marsh Hawk (2 runs - both unplaced)
Muffri' Ha (1 run - unplaced)
Stroll Patrol (1 run - unplaced)
Terro (3 runs - 1 win & 2 unplaced)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and

** = joint favourite; *** = co-favourite (where applicable).

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday:

5--Richard Fahey
5--Mark Johnston
4--Richard Hannon
4--William Haggas
4--Sir Mark Prescott
4--Roger Varian
3--Charlie Appleby
3--Andrew Balding
3--Jim Bolger
3--Brian Ellison
3--John Gosden
3--Alan King
3--Tony Martin
3--Aidan O'Brien
3--Chris Wall
2--Ralph Beckett
2--Mick Channon
2--Jane Chapple-Hyam
2--Barry Hills
2--Dean Ivory
2--Bernard Llewellyn
2--Gary Moore
2--David O'Meara
2--David Simcock
2--Ian Williams
2--Stuart Williams
1--Michael Bell
1--Roger Charlton
1--K J Condon
1--Clive Cox
1--Luke Dace
1--Seamus Durack
1--Gordon Elliott
1--David Elsworth
1--David Evans
1--James Fanshawe
1--Rae Guest
1--P Harley
1--Charlie Hills
1--Gay Kelleway
1--Sylvester Kirk
1--William Knight
1--Phil McBride
1--Brian Meehan
1--Hughie Morrison
1--Willie Mullins
1--Johnny Murtagh
1--David Nicholls
1--Hugo Palmer
1--David Pipe
1--Bryan Smart
1--Sir Michael Stoute
1--Saeed Bin Suroor
1--Alan Swinbank
1--Ed Vaughan
1--Lucy Wadham

105 declared runners

2015 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1,143 meetings):

Four meetings with no favourites in the frame: £924.37 (4)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,473.81 (25)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £994.39 (115)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £486.61 (300)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £273.63 (370)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £67.13 (251)
6 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £18.72 (77)
One meeting was abandoned after two races - left out of these calculations

Flat venues:
Total Flat meetings (£400.54 - 517 meetings - Average Placepot dividends)
Ascot (£658.33--17 meetings)
Ayr (£831.15--17 meetings)
Bath (£175.16--20 meetings)
Beverley (£372.94--20 meetings)
Brighton (£1,036.91--20 meetings)
Carlisle (£225.47--13 meetings)
Catterick (£333.49--15 meetings)
Chepstow (£88.73--16 meetings)
Chester (£182.88--15 meetings)
Doncaster (£562.79--21 meetings)
Epsom (£662.30--11 meetings)
Ffos Las (£291.89--7 meetings)
Goodwood (£198.50--18 meetings)
Hamilton (£306.82--18 meetings)
Haydock (£413.04--22 meetings)
Leicester (£318.29--19 meetings)
Lingfield (£337.58--7 meetings)
Musselburgh (£603.94--16 meetings)
Newbury (£1,181.62--16 meetings)
Newcastle (£395.84--16 meetings)
Newmarket (July)--£428.33--20 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£140.30--14 meetings)
Nottingham (£292.09--20 meetings)
Pontefract (£600.58--15 meetings)
Redcar (£122.39--15 meetings)
Ripon (£173.93--16 meetings)
Salisbury (£75.91--15 meetings)
Sandown (£127.88--16 meetings)
Thirsk (£167.90--16 meetings)
Wetherby (£19.10--4 meetings)
Windsor (£144.69--25 meetings)
Yarmouth (£100.40--3 meetings)
York (£1,035.55--15 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£264.01 - 227 meetings - Average Placepot dividends)
Chelmsford (£282.15--39 meetings)
Kempton (£179.53--43 meetings)
Lingfield (£447.29--47 meetings)
Southwell (£413.50--28 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£165.21--69 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£355.46 - 389 meetings - Average Placepot dividends)
Aintree (£331.40--5 meetings)
Ascot (£264.97--3 meetings)
Ayr (£413.90--9 meetings)
Bangor (£1,220.93--10 meetings)
Carlisle (£122.35--6 meetings)
Cartmel (£279.53--8 meetings)
Catterick (£95.21--6 meetings)
Cheltenham (£257.30--9 meetings)
Chepstow (£295.57--10 meetings)
Doncaster (£161.87--6 meetings)
Exeter (£369.93--11 meetings)
Fakenham (£215.32--9 meetings)
Ffos Las (£132.92--10 meetings)
Fontwell (£222.96--15 meetings)
Haydock (£469.17--4 meetings)
Hexham (£154.33--11 meetings)
Huntingdon (£122.41--10 meetings)
Kelso (£97.08--9 meetings)
Kempton (£70.29--8 meetings)
Leicester (£82.10--5 meetings)
Lingfield (£85.65--2 meetings)
Ludlow (£132.63--10 meetings)
Market Rasen (£219.41--16 meetings)
Musselburgh (£98.40--6 meetings)
Newbury (£153.73--7 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£2,434.75--15 meetings)
Newcastle (£201.99--7 meetings)
Perth (£116.88--14 meetings)
Plumpton (£373.19--11 meetings)
Sandown (£321.09--6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£91.62--13 meetings)
Southwell (£478.53--15 meetings)
Stratford (£393.22--16 meetings)
Taunton (£248.98--12 meetings)
Towcester (£77.80--8 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£520.66--18 meetings)
Warwick (£954.92--12 meetings)
Wetherby (£666.03--8 meetings)
Wincanton (£575.61--10 meetings)
Worcester (£150.74--18 meetings)

Mixed Turf & A/W Flat meeting:
Lingfield (£394.02--13 meetings)

Mixed NH & Flat meeting:
Haydock (£1551.00--1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2015 stands at £373.70 (1,147 meetings) up to and including Thursday October 8.