Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: October 1 2014, 9:23 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his selections for this afternoon's meeting at Salisbury.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.

His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 BST the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

SALISBURY - OCTOBER 1

Salisbury Selections

Race 1 (1.45pm): 5 (Kisumu), 3 (Gild Master) & 1 (Brandon Castle)
Race 2 (2.20pm): 1 (Chemical Charge), 4 (Parish) & 9 (Voice Control)
Race 3 (2.50pm): 2 (Desert Force), 1 (Best Of Times) & 3 (Risen Sun)
Race 4 (3.20pm): 5 (Penny's Boy), 8 (Rough Courte) & 3 (Elysian Prince)
Race 5 (3.55pm): 4 (Basem) & 6 (Alex Vino)
Race 6 (4.30pm): 1 (Astrophysics) & 2 (Elysian Flyer)

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2013: £1,108.00 (7 favourites: 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

1.45 The booking of Richard Hughes aboard Alan King's once raced Excellent Art raider GILD MASTER catches the eye, Alan's April foal having ran a decent race at the first time of asking at Lingfield. A couple of interesting factors involve Richard taking the ride with a Richard Hannon horse (MOHEET) in the line up, alongside the point that GILD MASTER was in the 'Royal Lodge' mix a few weeks ago whereby his debut effort merely confirmed that Alan's representative possesses plenty of ability. BRANDON CASTLE is the other horse to consider, with Andrew Balding making pleasing comments in the spring before the Dylan Thomas raider showed plenty of scope on his Bath debut on ground which would have been plenty firm enough for the February foal.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last 22 renewals, whilst 17 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.20 Something has to give here with both Ralph Beckett (CHEMICAL CHARGE) and Roger Varian (PARISH) waxing oh so lyrical about their juvenile runners earlier in the year. Both horses will be included in my toteplacepot mix but with experienced types such as SUBCONTINENT and VOICE CONTROL already having shown ability, this might prove to be a tough race to win, especially at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card whereby the same statistics remain in place.

2.50 'Team Hannon' has won the race seven times in the last 17 years and the trainer is represented this time around by DESERT FORCE and BRUTUS. "He may end up as one of our top ones" was the comment that Richard made about DESERT FORCE back in the spring, referring to the fact that his raider was a little 'weak kneed' and one who might take time to revelal his true potential. That time is now judged on his Newbury victory at the third time of asking with plenty of time this term to prove his trainer right. With a chance of rain overnight and into Wednesday morning, the good to soft winner could take all the beating in this 'win only' renewal. That said, BEST OF TIMES and RISEN SUN more than deserve their respective places in the line up whereby a decent race is still in the offing I'll wager.

Favourite factor: 10 favourites have scored during the last 12 years with the market leader coming into this year’s event on a eight timer!

3.20 Three-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals to date and and the trio of PENNY'S BOY, ELYSIAN PRINCE and ROUGH COURTE should all figure prominently. That said, TOBACCO ROAD is not badly treated by the terms and conditions given the official figures but being the self confessed anorak that I undoubtedly am, the three-year-olds will be included in my toteplacepot permutation on Wednesday.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have claimed four gold, one silver and a bronze medal via eight renewals to date.

3.55 BASEM represents Saeed Bin Suroor who boasts a 27% strike during the last fortnight via nine winners at the time of writing, a ratio which has produced nearly 10 points of level stake profits. A winner of two of his three races thus far, Saeed's Pivotal colt can handle most types of going by the look of things whereby the weather forecasters will not be relevant whatever they have to say overnight. ALEX VINO was a big disappointment at Yarmouth last time out and can only run a better race here, whilst the chance of SOVIET ROCK is also respected.

Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 7/4 market leader prevailed.

4.30 David Elsworth has inflicted a few defeats on Richard Hannon in the juvenile sector this season and ASTROPHYSICS is expected to beat his two (Richard Hannon trained) rivals here,namely ELYSIAN FLYER and SUNSET SAIL. The first named pair should dominate close home but ASTROPHYSICS could end the unbeaten run of ELYSIAN FLYER at level weights.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last 17 years, whilst market leaders have an almost perfect record from a toteplacepot perspective during the study period, though that said, the last two market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Salisbury card on Wednesday

8 - Richard Hannon
4 - Andrew Balding 4 - Mick Channon 3 - Ralph Beckett 2 - Roger Charlton 2 - Harry Dunlop 2 - Amanda Perrett 2 - Sir Michael Stoute 2 - Saeed Bin Suroor 2 - Roger Varian 1 - Charlie Appleby 1 - George Baker 1 - Clive Brittain 1 - Lee Carter 1 - Paul Cole 1 - Luca Cumani 1 - Alexandra Dunn 1 - David Elsworth 1 - James Eustace 1 - Johnny Farrelly 1 - Karen George 1 - Lady Herries 1 - Peter Hedger 1 - Charlie Hills 1 - Eve Johnson Houghton 1 - Mark Johnston 1 - Alan King 1 - Sylvester Kirk 1 - Stuart Kittow 1 - Natalie Lloyd-Beavis 1 - George Margarson 1 - Brian Meehan 1 - Gary Moore 1 - Paul Morgan 1 - Hughie Morrison 1 - William Muir 1 - Seamus Mullins 1 - David Pipe 1 - Jonathan Portman 1 - Brendan Powell 1 - David Simcock 1 - Sir Michael Stoute 1 - Roger Teal 1 - Joseph Tuite 1 - Amy Weaver 1 - Ian Williams

67 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1098 meetings):
Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £18,825.73 (4)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,082.47 (29)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,035.55 (121)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £488.96 (286)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £179.90 (319)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £77.05 (236)
All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.04 (103)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:
Cheltenham - £44,616.30 - Friday March 14
Pontefract - £26,272.90 - Tuesday April 8
Sandown - £20,601.40 - Saturday July 5
Redcar - £9,925.20 - Tuesday September 9
Warwick (NH) - £6,946.60 - Sunday March 9
Ripon - £6,876.30 - Saturday August 16
Doncaster (flat) - £6,810.90 - Saturday August 16
Redcar - £5,730.00 - Wednesday July 30
Wolverhampton - £5,122.30 - Friday April 11
Southwell (NH) - £4,820.20 - Thursday January 22
Chester - £4,495.50 - Saturday September 13
Hamilton - £4,433.40 - Friday August 22
Doncaster (flat) - £3,701.90 - Friday April 25
Lingfield (Mix Turf/AW) - £3,620.50 - Saturday June 28
Wetherby - £3,148.90 - Thursday May 29
York - £3,065.20 - Friday August 22
Bath - £3,032.20 - Friday August 1
York - £2,892.80 - Saturday June 14
Wincanton - £2,871.50 - Thursday May 8
Yarmouth - £2,868.90 - Monday April 21
Newmarket - £2,867.90 - Thursday July 11
Fontwell - £2,743.60 - Tuesday June 10
Stratford - £2,571.90 - Saturday March 22
Uttoxeter - £2,507.80 - Thursday June 12
Newmarket (July) - £2,433.40 - Saturday August 2
Cheltenham - £2,414.40 - Thursday April 17
Windsor - £2,390.20 - Monday August 4
Fontwell - £2,374.70 - Friday May 2
Lingfield (A/W) - £2,320.10 - Saturday March 22
Yarmouth - £2,176.60 - Sunday August 24
Hamilton - £2,172.70 - Monday September 29
Stratford - £2,142.70 - Tuesday July 1
Catterick (NH) - £2,105.50 - Wednesday January 1
Bath - £2,090.60 - Wednesday June 25
Brighton - £2,008.10 - Thursday August 7
Doncaster (Flat) - £2,002.40 - Sunday March 30

Flat Turf venues:
Total Flat Turf meetings (£478.04 - 508 meetings)
Ascot (£255.24 - 15 meetings)
Ayr (£370.96 - 15 meetings)
Bath (£438.41 - 19 meetings)
Beverley (£480.05 - 18 meetings)
Brighton (£235.81 - 19 meetings)
Carlisle (£444.66 - 13 meetings)
Catterick (£168.10 - 14 meetings)
Chepstow (£123.17 - 13 meetings)
Chester (£494.12 - 15 meetings)
Doncaster (£799.34 - 21 meetings)
Epsom (£124.13 - 11 meetings)
Ffos Las (£749.04 - 6 meetings)
Goodwood (£168.73 - 18 meetings)
Hamilton (£535.59 - 18 meetings)
Haydock (£302.43 - 22 meetings)
Leicester (£129.33 - 18 meetings)
Lingfield (£877.00 - 1 meeting)
Musselburgh (£364.65 - 16 meetings)
Newbury (£200.25 - 15 meetings)
Newcastle (£174.71 - 15 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) (£160.72 - 11 meetings)
Newmarket (July) (£539.74 - 22 meetings)
Nottingham (£278.75 - 17 meetings)
Pontefract (£2,340.99 - 13 meetings)
Redcar (£1,553.04 - 14 meetings)
Ripon (£543.89 - 16 meetings)
Salisbury (£247.29 - 14 meetings)
Sandown (£1,560.04 - 16 meetings)
Thirsk (£269.33 - 15 meetings)
Warwick (£58.70 - 6 meetings - only two races contested at the May 20 meeting)
Windsor (£258.65 - 23 meetings)
Yarmouth (£435.90 - 23 meetings)
York (£851.54 - 15 meetings)

Mixed Turf and All-weather venues:
Lingfield (£290.98 - 15 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£200.94 - 222 meetings)
Kempton (£109.75 - 58 meetings)
Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05 - 2 meetings)
Lingfield (£166.35 - 60 meetings)
Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70 - 1 meeting)
Southwell (£142.79 - 39 meetings)
Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00 - 1 meeting)
Wolverhampton (£237.69 - 60 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£445.21 - 361 meetings)
Aintree (£565.72 - 5 meetings)
Ascot (£144.23 - 3 meetings)
Ayr (£360.01 - 8 meetings)
Bangor (£312.38 - 8 meetings)
Carlisle (£522.96 - 6 meetings)
Cartmel (£126.89 - 7 meetings)
Catterick (£375.36 - 7 meetings)
Cheltenham (£5,553.28 - 9 meetings)
Chepstow (£197.61 - 7 meetings)
Doncaster (£290.41 - 7 meetings)
Exeter (£332.49 - 7 meetings)
Fakenham (£160.26 - 7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£312.36 - 11 meetings)
Fontwell (£508.97 - 12 meetings)
Haydock (£817.85 - 4 meetings)
Hexham (£336.10 - 9 meetings)
Huntingdon (£131.30 - 10 meetings)
Kelso (£315.74 - 8 meetings)
Kempton (£133.63 - 6 meetings)
Leicester (£382.19 - 5 meetings)
Ludlow (£93.57 - 8 meetings)
Market Rasen (£95.60 - 16 meetings)
Musselburgh (£372.37 - 6 meetings)
Newbury (£209.60 - 6 meetings)
Newcastle (£454.85 - 6 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£167.77 - 17 meetings)
Perth (£262.16 - 16 meetings)
Plumpton (£267.18 - 8 meetings)
Sandown (£205.02 - 4 meetings)
Southwell (£536.35 - 14 meetings)
Sedgefield (£208.41 - 13 meetings)
Stratford (£387.73 - 14 meetings)
Taunton (£144.18 - 9 meetings)
Towcester (£112.88 - 10 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£325.03 - 14 meetings)
Warwick (£1,287.67 - 6 meetings)
Wetherby (£387.17 - 10 meetings)
Wincanton (£439.67 - 10 meetings)
Worcester (£171.81 - 18 meetings)

Mixed Flat and NH venues:
Ffos Las (£168.90 - 1 meeting)
Haydock (£311.40 - 1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £412.49 (1098 meetings) up to and including Monday September 29