Reds can run riot again

  • By: Dave Tickner
  • Last Updated: February 2 2014, 13:29 GMT

Our Dave Tickner feels Liverpool can again hit the goal trail in the Premier League on Sunday - and is backing them to do so at a tasty price.

Suarez and Sturridge: Have 36 goals between them this season
Suarez and Sturridge: Have 36 goals between them this season

The Reds take on West Brom in the lunchtime fixture, with Arsenal entertaining Crystal Palace in the second leg of 'Super Sunday'.

Here's Dave's in-depth verdict on the two matches:

West Brom v Liverpool (1330 GMT)

A tricky game to get a handle on. Their last six meetings in the Premier League have produced three wins apiece. Four of those wins (two each) have been for the away side. Liverpool have won 4-0 and 5-3 in recent weeks as well as gifting Aston Villa a preposterous 2-0 start before drawing 2-2, while West Brom lost 4-3 at Villa in midweek after a run of eight games in which seven featured under 2.5 goals. The odd one out? A 3-3 draw against West Ham. The Baggies' form is not great - in fact, it's terrible, with just one win in their last 13 - but they have won one and drawn two of their last three home games in the Premier League to make Liverpool slightly risky 4/6 shots given the Reds have won only four of their 11 away games this season. The score could be almost anything here, but with the Baggies shipping four goals to a team that had previously mustered eight in 11 at home, only Manchester City would be worse follow-up opponents than Liverpool. Brendan Rodgers' men have scored four or more goals in five of their last 10 Premier League games with Luis Suarez continuing to find the target and the returning Daniel Sturridge also back in the groove. Both scored in the midweek win over Everton. Liverpool have netted five in two of their last four away games (the other two were at Chelsea and Manchester City). It's speculative, but Liverpool to score over 3.5 goals in this one at 11/2 looks a spot of value given the stats involved.

Verdict: West Brom 2 Liverpool 4

Opta stats:

West Brom have won just three of their last 15 Premier League games at the Hawthorns (D6 L6).

Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge have played a combined 33 Premier League games this season and scored 36 goals.

Daniel Sturridge has found the net in 12 of his 15 Premier League appearances for Liverpool this season.

Arsenal v Crystal Palace (1600)

Arsenal are 2/9 pokes here, and while that's not a price for anyone to get excited about it's hard to say it's wrong. Arsenal won five in a row before the midweek draw at Southampton and since the error-strewn opening-day defeat against Aston Villa no visiting team has taken three points home from the Emirates. Only Chelsea and Everton have taken one point. Crystal Palace, for all their recent improvement, remain short of that class. Indeed, they have still been found wanting whenever going toe-to-toe against the division's better sides: the four defeats they've suffered in the last 10 matches have been the four games they've played against teams in the top eight. They've not been disgraced in those games, though, losing by the odd goal at Chelsea and Manchester City and missing a penalty at 0-0 in the 2-0 defeat at Tottenham. Arsenal to win by exactly one goal at 16/5 with Ladbrokes merits serious consideration, as does the 11/8 offered by BetVictor for under 2.5 goals, which would've landed in Arsenal's last seven home games and Palace's last six Premier League matches.

Verdict: Arsenal 1 Crystal Palace 0

Opta stats:

Crystal Palace have scored just five goals away from home in the Barclays Premier League, fewer than any other team and never more than once in a single match.

The Gunners have kept six clean sheets in their last seven Premier League games on home soil.

No player has scored the first goal of a Premier League game on more occasions than Olivier Giroud this season (6).

  • Both games are being televised live in the UK on Sky Sports.

  • Posted at 1000 GMT on 31/01/2014.