Kaylif can be Kempton star
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value from Saturday's action at Kempton and Warwick and he's on three horses at double-figure prices.
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There are less runners than usual in the William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, but it's no less of an intriguing contest with some highly progressive horses in the line up.
Junction Fourteen has gone up 16lb for his easy success over the course and distance last time, while Saphir Du Rheu has gone up just one pound less following his own emphatic victory at Sandown.
- 1.5pts win Kaylif Aramis in 2.40 Kempton at 11/1 (Stan James) - progressive over the trip in testing ground and useful claimer rides
- 0.5pts win Art Professor in 2.40 Kempton at 25/1 (Coral) - track and trip and ground will suit; yard in great form
- 1pt win Emperor's Choice in 3.35 Warwick at 12/1 (General) - stays well in deep ground and interesting dropped in weights with yard in form
Both horses are on steep upward curves at the distance and we just won't know if the handicapper has got hold of either until after the race.
Their chances are obvious, but they are both short enough in the market considering their extreme hikes in the weights and the percentage call has to be to take them on.
But who with?
Spirit Of Shankly is an interesting contender and is tempting at 10/1, as the form he showed when giving 6lb and a beating to Urban Hymn could in time prove to be very smart indeed.
He's not easily passed over but it came down to who I would rather back, him at 10/1, or Nigel Twiston-Davies' KAYLIF ARAMIS at a point bigger.
The first time tongue-tie and the useful 7lb claim of Ryan Hatch drew me to the latter, as he looks to have everything in his favour now tackling two miles and five furlongs on heavy ground.
He's gone well at Kempton in the past, but it's his profile over the trip and ground that makes him a solid wager.
When he's run at around two and a half miles in soft or worse conditions he has form figures of 1-1-3 - and that third was his seasonal reappearance when beaten just over three lengths at Chepstow.
Since then he's fallen at Cheltenham when staying on well enough, before finishing sixth when outpaced in the Ladbroke over two miles.
With the emphasis now on stamina again, he has the look of a very well-handicapped horse and should be backed at double-figure prices.
I'll weigh the majority of the staking plan on his shoulders, but it might be worth having a small portion of your Saturday fund on ART PROFESSOR at 25/1 too.
Venetia Williams' string remain in fine form and she had another live contender for this race in Citizenship at the six-day stage, but relies on this fellow.
He's gone well here before and is two from two at Huntingdon as well, another flat, right-handed speed track, while his reappearance when staying on to be second to Special Catch at Haydock was promising.
Admittedly he's been exposed off this mark plenty of times and with so much potential in the line up he was always going to be an outsider.
But, he has plenty in his favour too, and this represents one of his better chances of defying a mark in the 130s. At 25/1, he's worth a punt.
Talking of Venetia Williams' horses, EMPEROR'S CHOICE is worth backing at 12/1 in the Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick.
He hasn't shown much in two starts this season, but is of interest now dropped to a mark in the 120s with his yard in better form.
One thing he does do well is stay, as he showed when winning the Surrey National last February, and that quality will need to be a prerequisite in what will be an attritional affair.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +263.81pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).