Sametegal worth the Risk
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value in the StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle and he's on 10/1 and 28/1 chances.
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The market for the StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle is congested, to say the least, at the top of the betting.
Half the field are available at 10/1 or less which tells you just how competitive a race this is, even if it is seemingly lacking the sort of glamour horse that can turn up in this contest.
Cash And Go is a possible favourite but he looks too short after disappointing a few times last season. He's back down to the same mark that he ran off when second in this last year, but he looks worth taking on.
Ifandbutwhynot is tempting after an encouraging reappearance at Aintree, while Thomas Edison has chances and Dell' Arca is a fascinating runner for David Pipe.
However, I was really impressed with SAMETEGAL when he won here at the Showcase Meeting and Paul Nicholls' charge appeals most out of the market leaders at a general 10/1.
He was quick and slick over his obstacles that day and idled up the run-in, eventually beating Gordon Elliott's Bayan by a neck, the pair 11 lengths clear of the rest.
Elliott always has his charges tuned up for the October meeting and I felt Sametegal was a much easier winner than the winning distance implies.
The handicapper left him on a rating of 144 and it looks a mark he's capable of winning off given Bayan is rated 138 and he gave him 4lb.
Placed in the Triumph Hurdle behind Our Conor, Sametegal has some really good form to his name and his profile very much reminds me of Brampour, another Nicholls-trained four-year-old when he won this race in 2011.
The other one I want onside is John Quinn's CALCULATED RISK at 28s.
Regular readers know how much I like an overlooked second string and this fellow is another example given Kashmir Peak has taken the spotlight away from him.
He won on his handicap debut in March off 119, followed up at Ascot off 125 and then was sixth at Sandown off 131.
Some good runs on the Flat since suggest he has more improvement in him, and, back down a couple of pounds to 129, I like his chances for owner Terry Warner and jockey Richard Johnson, who have won this race with another four-year-old - Detroit City in 2006.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +257.81pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +125.50pts to recommended stakes in 2013.