England 2/1 for group-stage exit

  • By: Andy Schooler
  • Last Updated: October 16 2013, 14:29 BST

England may have qualified for the World Cup finals but an early exit is the most likely scenario in Brazil, according to the bookies.

England are off to the World Cup - and are 33/1 to win it
England are off to the World Cup - and are 33/1 to win it

Roy Hodgson's men can be backed at 33/1 with Betfred and totesport to lift the trophy next summer after booking their place with a 2-0 win over Poland on Tuesday night - a victory secured by goals from Wayne Rooney and Steven Gerrard.

However, the layers have already begun to price up 'stage of elimination' markets with bet365 making a group-stage exit most likely at 2/1. William Hill make that outcome a 3/1 shot and feel a second-round loss, as was the case in South Africa in 2010, is more likely at 9/4.

An exit on penalties - as occurred at the 1990, 1998 and 2006 tournaments - is offered at 6/1 by Ladbrokes.

Brazil are the current favourites to win the tournament at a generally-available 10/3.

Germany are next at 5/1, followed by Argentina (6/1) and holders Spain, who Boylesports are prepared to lay at 13/2.

Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy are all also rated more likely winners than England, making the Three Lions the eighth favourites at this stage. The draw takes place on December 6.

Betting is also available regarding who will play for England at the tournament. Prices to make the squad and to play in the first game are already up.

Andros Townsend, who impressed during this week's qualifiers, is a best of 8/15 (Sky Bet) to be in Roy Hodgson's 23-man squad.

Hill's make the Spurs winger 4/7 to start England's opening match of the tournament next June. He is 5/4 not to. However, Sky Bet have him at 5/4 to start.

Having started two qualifiers in the absence of the injured Ashley Cole, Everton's Leighton Baines is now 4/6 (BetVictor) to keep the shirt for the opener in Brazil. Cole is 6/5.

However, Sky Bet disgaree completely and go 1/3 Cole, 9/4 Baines.

Sky Bet's prices suggest this will be the team which plays in the opening match next summer: Hart, Johnson, Cole, Jagielka, Cahill, Walcott, Wilshere, Gerrard, Welbeck, Rooney, Sturridge.

The squad market prices suggest England's 23-man squad for the finals will look like this: Hart, Forster, Ruddy, Walker, Johnson, Cole, Baines, Cahill, Jagielka, Jones, Lescott, Gerrard, Walcott, Wilshere, Carrick, Lampard, Townsend, Milner, Cleverley, Barkley, Rooney, Sturridge, Welbeck.

Qualifiers

Europe: Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Russia, Spain, Switzerland
South America: Argentina, Brazil (hosts), Chile, Colombia, Ecuador
Asia: Australia, Iran, Japan, South Korea
North & Central America/Caribbean: Costa Rica, Honduras, USA
TBD: 11 more teams will qualify in November

Such a scenario would leave Chris Smalling (10/11 to make the squad), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (13/8) and Rickie Lambert (13/8) all missing out.

Sky Bet trader Chris Spicer said: "Now that qualification is assured the focus will be on who will make Hodgson's final 23-man squad for the tournament.

"Andros Townsend was 12/5 to be on the plane after being named in the latest squad but having impressed in his first two caps he's now deemed likely to go at 8/15.

"Others are either on the verge of breaking through, such as Raheem Sterling who is 7/2 to make the squad, or a veteran like Jermain Defoe (3/1) who will be hoping experience can win him a spot."

bet365 offer 25/1 that the team which beat Poland starts the opening game of Brazil 2014, while Rooney is 16/1 with Hill's to win the Golden Boot after his seven goals in six qualifying matches.

Meanwhile, Sky Bet are already looking ahead to next month's play-offs and expect Portugal (30/100), Croatia (4/9), France (4/9) and Ukraine (8/13) to make it. Greece (evs), Sweden (6/5), Romania (5/2) and Iceland (4/1) are the outsiders ahead of Thursday's seeding announcement. The draw will take place on Monday.

With Scotland having failed to qualify, Scottish firm McBookie are looking even further ahead and make the Scots 9/4 (from 5/2) to qualify for the 24-team Euro 2016 tournament after Gordon Strachan's men ended a disappointing qualifying campaign with a 2-0 win over Croatia.

The firm's Paul Petrie said: "Gordon Strachan has really turned things around and it is just a shame he wasn't there for the start of the qualifying campaign. The expanded tournament in France can only count in our favour and finally we could be heading to a major tournament."

  • Posted at 0850 BST; updated at 1430 BST on 16/10/2013.