Play it again with Bogart
Ben Linfoot picks out four Value Bets from Saturday's action at Newmarket and York.
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So to Future Champions Day at Newmarket, with all sorts of clues set to present themselves ahead of next year's Classics and beyond.
While I'm looking forward as much as anyone to the performances of Hot Streak and Supplicant and Outstrip and War Command in the Middle Park and Dewhurst Stakes, it will be of no surprise to regular readers that I'm diving straight into the 34-runner puzzle that is the Betfred Cesarewitch.
The claims of Tiger Cliff and Domination appeal most out of the first six in the betting, with the duo thriving at present as well as having proven themselves at the track before.
Their ability to handle fast conditions is a positive too, given the mild autumn and subsequent good to firm ground we are likely to have on Saturday.
- 1pt win Bogart 20/1 (totesport, Betfred, Paddy Power,BetVictor) in 15.30 York - Likely pace angle and faster ground suits
- 1pt e.w. Humidor 40/1 (Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4) in 15.30 York - A class act on his day and looks to have a good draw
- 1pt e.w. Sohar 33/1 (Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) in 15.50 Newmarket - Much better than her recent performances suggest.
- 1pt win Brockwell 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) in 15.50 Newmarket - Value of victory in Cesarewitch Trial looks much underrated
But in such a race, their prices of around 10/1 look about right. I couldn't argue a strong enough case for either to justify a bet at such odds, though, for me, they are two of the more likelier winners.
You wouldn't say the same about James Toller's SOHAR, but at 33/1 she makes much more appeal from a value perspective.
As is nearly always the case with horses at this kind of price you need to forgive and forget. But I feel she has genuine excuses for her last two performances.
Firstly, the flip start in the UBS Goodwood Stakes did for her chances at the Glorious meeting and then next time she didn't perform well on her first attempt on the all-weather at Kempton.
It may be her form is tailing off, but if they are genuine excuses then she becomes very interesting at the prices.
At Royal Ascot she ran well in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, finishing a three-length seventh with neither an extreme trip nor good to firm ground doing her any harm that day.
But the main reason for my interest in her is her form at Newmarket, which is better than anything she has produced anywhere else.
On her last four starts at the track she has finished 3-2-10-2 and that last second came over two miles last November, when she had Lieutenant Miller nine lengths back in third.
I'm not saying on that form she'll have the beating of Nicky Henderson's horse again, but she has only had four races since and, with fingers firmly crossed the return to Newmarket will bring out the very best in her, she seems to have been slightly underestimated.
I do want a more solid option to go to war with too, and it seems to me BROCKWELL'S effort in the Cesarewitch Trial behind Oriental Fox wasn't really given the credit it deserved.
He fared much the best of those who raced prominently that day and did very well to finish as close as he did to the winner, a 5lb-pull at the weights and the talented Jason Hart's 3lb-claim reason enough to believe he could well reverse the form.
The first-time hood could also help this consistent performer to get his head in front for the first time this season and at 16/1 he's worth chancing.
Competitive affairs are the order of the day with the Coral Sprint Trophy at York another good handicap to get stuck into.
After going through the race it struck me there wasn't an awful lot of early speed for the majority of hold-up sprinters to pounce on and with that in mind it could be worth backing BOGART again at 20/1.
The sight of Amy Ryan being unseated in the Sky Bet Dash still gives me nightmares (not as much as poor Amy, presumably) but when she dusted herself down she made everyone who had backed the York specialist feel better by declaring to her father that 'he would've won'.
The horse consequently made amends by winning at the Ebor meeting before unsurprisingly disappointing in softer ground at Doncaster and Ayr.
Back at York, on faster ground, with 5lb-claimer Kevin Stott in the plate, it's time to row in again. His middle draw and lack of an obvious rival up front in the early stages enhances his appeal. Being a bit of an all or nothing horse, a small win bet is advised.
The each-way bet in the race could well be George Baker's HUMIDOR at 40/1.
He's a class act who is slowly sliding down the weights and he travelled well in the Ayr Gold Cup when finishing a six-length 11th.
His only previous effort at York was a running-on fourth in Ortensia's Nunthorpe and that's the sort of performance he's capable of on his day.
A decent prize awaits him when things drop right and I like his stands' rail draw in 20 on Saturday. If they congregate towards the middle like they usually do in sprints at York he can tag on to the pack on the stands' side and get an untroubled passage to the line.
Off his lowest mark in a few years that may be all he needs to trouble the judge and the sponsor's 40/1 is worth having.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +257.56pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +125.25pts to recommended stakes in 2013.