Boulevard of dreams in Paris
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe day at Longchamp, with two selections advised.
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I fancy the fillies might take centre stage on Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe day with Treve holding a fine chance in the feature and Moonlight Cloud the banker of the card in the Foret.
The problem is, you don't need me to tell you how good these female flying machines are and their prices are prohibitive enough considering the quality of opposition they're up against.
If you want to know the whys and wherefores of a wonderful renewal of the Arc, you're best off reading the thoughts of Donn McClean, Simon Holt and Matt Brocklebank who have spent more time going through the form than I have.
I'll concentrate on the bets I will be having, starting with WILSHIRE BOULEVARD in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.
This race has cut up into a pretty weak renewal and Aidan O'Brien, who farmed the contest in the 2000s when run in its former guise that was the Grand Criterium, might just have found a very winnable Group One for the Gimcrack runner-up.
He didn't have the best of starts at York when hampered and niggled early, but he made good headway before finishing a close second to Afsaire.
The form of the Gimcrack hasn't been tested too much, but Justice Day has come out and won since while Cable Bay has gone well in defeat. In addition, his Anglesey Stakes win at the Curragh was given a boost of sorts when his stablemate and runner-up, Oklahoma City, eased to victory in the valuable sales race at Newmarket on Saturday.
His form looks good, probably not good enough to win a vintage Grand Criterium, but certainly good enough for him to have a big say this year.
Admittedly I don't have a deep knowledge of the French formbook, but I do know that Karakontie's Prix La Rochette form wasn't boosted by the fourth Daraybi next time, while Elusive Pearl, who was the filly closest to Noozoh Canarias at La Teste-de-Buch, was well beaten when sent off favourite at Maisons-Laffitte next time.
Considering the step up to seven furlongs looks sure to suit the son of Holy Roman Emperor, he looks worth backing to emulate his sire (O'Brien's last winner of the contest in 2006) and win the Lagardere.
The other one I like on the card is Andreas Lowe's German raider RED LIPS in the Prix de l'Opera Longines.
She was arguably unluckier than Secret Gesture in the German Oaks at Dusseldorf last time, as she was short of room and hampered a quarter of a mile from home before clipping heels with the leader and stumbling.
Remarkably she stayed on well for a close fourth after eventually recovering and on that form it's astonishing she's six times the price of Ralph Beckett's filly.
Three-year-olds have a fantastic recent record in this contest and it's of no surprise the Classic generation dominate the market. What is a surprise is that a three-year-old is the rank outsider, when on her last run alone she is a live contender.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +261.56pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +129.25pts to recommended stakes in 2013.