Something for the weekend

  • By: Matt Briggs
  • Last Updated: October 5 2013, 11:29 BST

Matt Briggs picks out the value in his weekly column, with Aston Villa fancied to enhance their excellent away record.

Aston Villa look value to add to last weekend's win
Aston Villa look value to add to last weekend's win

Premier League

Aston Villa chalked up a rather fortunate 3-2 home win over Manchester City last week and I fancy Paul Lambert's men to follow that up with a more deserving three points on the road at Hull.

Historically Villa have been a good team to follow away from Villa Park earning an impressive 33 per cent win rate on their travels since 2008 and this season they certainly look like siding with away from Birmingham.

Only 26 per cent of Premier League games ended in away wins last season with Villa doing slightly better than the average managing five - a total which nobody outside the top seven surpassed. And that total was achieved in Lambert's first year in charge in what can be described as a transitional season.

This term Villa look better equipped to compete with the best and with two away wins (at Arsenal and Norwich) already to their name they look well worthy of support at Hull.

The 21/10 might well shorten slightly, but the bookies have it just about right when you consider Villa's 33 per cent away-day success, but when you consider Hull's status as a newly-promoted outfit then Villa seem a decent bet.

The Villans, who will play counter-attacking football at The KC, will probably have to get the job done without Christian Benteke and Gabby Agnonlahor, but they showed against City they can still score against the best.

Hull have won twice at home already against Norwich and more recently against West Ham, but that was courtesy of a dubious Robbie Brady penalty and the Tigers have only scored three times at The KC.

Steve Bruce's men are sure to take the initiative at home but Villa are masters of the swift break and expect them to return to the Second City with maximum points.

Swansea are another away-day fancy next weekend at high-flying Southampton.

The Swans have already won at West Brom and Crystal Palace and the 14/5 quote about a third away win looks too generous.

Michael Laudrup's men have the distraction of the Europa League to contend with and St Gallen arrive at the Liberty Stadium on Thursday night, but Laudrup has assembled a strong squad and they showed in winning at Valencia and Palace in quick succession that they can deal with the rigours of Europe's second competition.

The Swans were beaten 2-1 by table-topping Arsenal last weekend, but they chalked up 59 per cent of the possession and in fact they've dominated the ball in every game this season and that should stand them in good stead at St Mary's.

Laudrup's team can also play on the break and have plenty of pace to cause Saints huge problems and their versatility should just be enough to see off Southampton, who grabbed their first home win last weekend.

League One

In League One I'm going to give Swindon another chance after they messed things up at Preston last weekend.

The Robins were advised at 11/4 to grab the win at Deepdale and they steamed into 9/4 before producing a below-par performance to lose 2-1.

Boss Mark Cooper was left fuming and we can expect at reaction at home to struggling Tranmere and they look a banker (3/4) to get with at the County Ground.

Cooper has aquired some decent firepower and they should be too strong for Rovers who have lost three times away from Prenton Park already and scored just three goals.

League Two

AFC Wimbledon have won all four of their League Two home games - brushing aside Burton, Fleetwood, Scunthorpe and Wycombe and the Wombles warrant support to make it five against struggling Northampton.

The generous quote of 11/10 certainly doesn't reflect Wimbledon's fine home record and Northampton's woeful return of zero points for four away games and the hosts are definitely worth getting stuck into early.

  • Posted at 0945 BST on 30/09/2013.