Seek profits with Queensberry Rules
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value in the Betfred Cambridgeshire at Newmarket and he's taking two against the field.
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If you add 10 runners and three furlongs to last weekend's Ayr Gold Cup you have the Betfred Cambridgeshire, a wickedly delightful handicap run over the straight nine furlongs at HQ.
You don't see many races of this type and getting a handle on it's uniqueness is vital when trying to crack the puzzle. Personally, I think it's important to assess straight-mile big-field form from throughout the campaign and those dastardly difficult handicaps at Ascot naturally spring to mind.
Races like the Royal Hunt Cup and the Britannia could provide vital clues as they did last year, when the third-placed horse from the latter, Bronze Angel, defied a three-month absence to prevail.
Marcus Tregoning's charge will have to overcome a 12-month break this time around, but otherwise he has solid claims off just a 6lb-higher mark with plenty of that big-field straight-course form in the book.
However, this year's Bronze Angel might just be QUEENSBERRY RULES who positively screamed 'CAMBRIDGESHIRE' when finishing third himself in this year's Britannia at Royal Ascot.
Ridden well off the pace by Ryan Moore, he cut through the pack to take the Britannia bronze, not quite getting to the front two despite his late charge.
A slight step up in trip looks the right move on that evidence and he did disappoint next time back at Ascot when dropped to seven and sent off the 11/2 favourite for the International Stakes.
Given the best part of a month off, he returned to the track at York and put in a much better effort when sixth behind Mont Ras in the Clipper Logistic Handicap over a mile, a race that wouldn't have suited a closer like him at all.
Still, it showed that he's on the way back and returned to a big-field cavalry charge I fancy him to put his best foot forward in a first-time tongue tie with Moore back in the saddle.
He does have to prove his stamina, but on that Britannia run it could well bring out the best in him and 14/1 remains a good price.
While the dry weather and decent ground will not be a hindrance to Queensberry Rules, it could be to most of his main market rivals.
I would argue Top Notch Tonto, Ascription, Educate and Code Of Honor all need at least a bit of give underfoot to show their best and they all look short enough considering that.
I want another one onside and a preference for good ground or better is a prerequisite with Red Avenger and Danchai both considered.
However, I can't resist the claims of another three-year-old in SEEK AGAIN, considering his overall profile, his connections and the generally-available 22/1.
John Gosden's Cambridgeshire runners are always worth a second look given his recent record in the race and it's surprising that this fellow seems to have gone a little under the radar.
As Gosden's only representative in the contest and being owned by Khalid Abdullah, who last won the race with Tremblant in 1985, I expected him to be more prominent in the betting - especially considering how unexposed he is.
From his three runs on turf he's won two, both on good or better ground and both at Newmarket. He won his maiden on the Rowley Mile at this meeting last year and a handicap in the summer on the July Course, while his sole defeat on grass came on soft ground behind 2000 Guineas third Van der Neer as a juvenile.
His last two appearances have come on the all-weather at Kempton and he was particularly eye-catching there last time when sticking to the inside rail throughout, seeing little daylight all the way around.
He's much better than that and with a 4lb-pull at the weights it wouldn't surprise if he were to reverse the form with the winner Graphic, with the step up in trip an interesting angle into his chance.
Yet to race beyond a mile, he has to prove he stays but being a half-brother to Treble Jig, who has won several times between nine furlongs and a mile-and-a-half, there is hope that it could unlock further improvement.
Certainly, after just five career starts, the feeling is the best is yet to come and I think his potential outweighs his inexperience at the available odds.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +267.56pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +135.25pts to recommended stakes in 2013.