Well set for ODI success

  • By: Dave Tickner
  • Last Updated: September 8 2013, 15:23 BST

Our Dave Tickner expects James Tredwell to star for England in the upcoming ODI series against Australia.

Tredwell: Can get among the wickets for England
Tredwell: Can get among the wickets for England

There was a time, long forgotten now, when Australia were not in England playing cricket.

After the Champions Trophy, the Ashes and a couple of T20s, the last leg of a long summer arrives with a five-match ODI series. Get through that, and we can all look forward to the winter, when Australia play England.

Australia are slight favourites to win the series against a much-changed England squad and that looks just about fair enough despite the tourists' conspicuous lack of international victories on this tour and a continuing habit of losing fast bowlers to injury at every turn.

England's home record - they've won six of their last nine home ODI series, thrashed Australia 4-0 last summer and really should have won the Champions Trophy in June - demands respect and they'd be well worth backing here had the understandable and unfairly maligned squad changes not knocked out plenty of experience with both bat and ball.

And Australia's record overseas is stronger than most; before a dreadful CT campaign they'd won four and drawn one of their last six overseas series of three or more games, with that defeat to England the only series defeat on the road since the 2011 World Cup.

Trend followers may also want to consider the fact that Ashes winners have recently come out second best in one-day series immediately afterwards. Australia were comfortable post-Ashes winners in 2009 and 2010/11, while in 2006/7 a Paul Collingwood-inspired England burgled victory in the Commonwealth Bank tri-series that followed the Ashes whitewashing.

These teams look evenly matched and their recent records in this format look solid enough.

Certainly a close series appears to be on the cards and it's no surprise to see the two 3-2 results dominate the correct score market - although the weather is a third combatant whose influence could affect the final score with all five matches played well inside September.

The best value appears to come in the top England bowler market, where James Tredwell is an eminently backable 3/1 chance. As a one-day specialist and the only frontline spinner in the 14-man squad, he looks a fairly sure bet for five appearances and plenty of overs.

And his ODI career to date, albeit brief, puts him in elite company. The Kent twirler may not look like a star, but a record of 32 wickets from 20 ODIs at under 24 runs apiece is right up there with the best.

Tredwell is currently the only England bowler in ODI history to take at least 20 wickets at a strike-rate below 30.

He warmed up for this series with an impressive 2/35 against Ireland and has rarely had a poor game for England. After going wicketless in his first three ODIs, he's picked up at least one wicket in 14 of his last 17 games with two four-wicket and three three-wicket hauls.

Perhaps surprisingly for a spinner, his record in England is better than overseas with 15 wickets from nine games at a tick over 20.

Given Tredwell's position as sole specialist spinner and Australia's notorious weakness against spin, another more leftfield option to consider throwing some small change at in this market is Joe Root at Paddy Power's frankly silly 66/1. He's bowled an average of three overs per innings in his ODI career to date and may well get more work than that here.

But Tredwell's the bet here. His record alone merits favouritism, and as by far the likeliest bowler to play all five games his claims look rock-solid at the price.

  • Preview posted at 1505 BST on 04/09/2013.