No Super bets in Prague
Our Andy Schooler previews Friday's UEFA Super Cup clash between Chelsea and Bayern Munich.
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Chelsea will start Friday night's UEFA Super Cup clash with Bayern Munich as 4/1 outsiders, a price which may seem a tad big at first glance.
However, when you look at the Germans' recent record it's hard to argue with the layers' assessment of the Prague contest.
They have now emerged victorious from 32 of their last 36 competitive matches, while they also won 12 out of 12 in pre-season, including notable victories over Barcelona and Manchester City.
Any suggestions that this game won't be taken particularly seriously would seem to be ill-founded with new boss Pep Guardiola having rested several of his stars in midweek - a policy which backfired to some extent as they conceded a late equaliser to draw with Freiburg.
However, it's the single blip on Guardiola's record thus far with the transition of power having gone well, certainly in terms of results.
This would appear to be an even stronger squad than the one which triumphed in the Champions League last season with Thiago Alcantara and Mario Gotze added, although the former is already on the injured list.
Throw in the fact that Guardiola held the upper hand over Jose Mourinho during the pair's time in La Liga - he had five El Clasico wins to Mourinho's two - and you see why Bayern are odds-on for victory in 90 minutes.
Chelsea appear to still be bedding in following Mourinho's second coming at Stamford Bridge. Impressive on the opening day against Hull, they were then fortunate to beat Aston Villa and seemed happy with a point at Old Trafford on Monday.
Such a result should certainly not be sniffed at - indeed it could turn out to be crucial come May - but it did show that Mourinho isn't changing his ways too much.
Expect another similar tactical performance here, one which will see defence prioritised. Whether Guardiola and Bayern can figure out how to break down the Chelsea ranks remains to be seen but certainly under 2.5 goals is worthy of consideration at odds-against.
Encouraging news for those happy to side with Chelsea at the price is that, perhaps surprisingly, the Champions League winners have not dominated this fixture in the past.
Since the match became a clash between the Champions League winners and the holders of the expanded UEFA Cup/Europa League, the trophy has been shared with six wins apiece.
It should also be remembered that Chelsea did win the sides' previous meeting, the 2012 Champions League final, on penalties.
This does, however, look a good chance for revenge to be taken. The big-hitters may well be happy to back Bayern at odds-on but that's not a price to set my pulse racing.
If you are going to have a bet, under 2.5 goals is the suggestion but frankly this looks a game to sit and watch - it could be a fantastic tactical battle - rather than bet on.
- The match, which kicks off at 1945 BST, is being televised live in the UK on ITV1.