Add Genzy to Ebor plan
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on the final day of York's Ebor Meeting.
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A thunderstorm quickly changed the ground at York late on Thursday night and with significant rain forecast going into Saturday, we could be potentially be looking at an Ebor day with ground on the softer side.
In the big race, the Betfred Ebor, we are in a fairly good position having backed Sheikhzayedroad and Bishop Roko at 14/1 and 33/1 respectively just over two weeks ago.
They are now 9s and 14s and I'm not too concerned about Sheikhzayedroad's wide draw or the rain for either.
In fact, Bishop Roko needed a good downpour as Roger Charlton said he wouldn't run without the ground softening and I'm excited by his chance considering how well he won on his debut when there was plenty of cut in the Newbury turf.
I'm well aware that plenty of you won't be on those two at the advised prices but with just two points staked I'm happy to take a fresh look at the market and the 16/1 about GENZY makes plenty of appeal.
Ian Williams' charge was unlucky not to beat Bishop Roko at Ascot after being hampered before finishing with a late rattle. Although he hasn't quite got the scope for progression that Bishop Roko has, he has got a 4lb pull at the weights and is officially 8lb well in.
That's after a fine effort in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last week when he ran on very well for fourth.
You'd have to think the trip and a drop of rain will be fine for him and considering his form, considering he's well-in, and, considering Saturday's test looks sure to suit, 16s remains fair even though he was much bigger earlier in the week.
His very wide draw doesn't put me off as it shouldn't really in a race as long as this and, like Sheikhzayedroad, it could actually help him keep out of trouble as they jostle for position on the rail.
In the Melrose Handicap the one I like at the prices is Andrew Hollinshead's SNOWY DAWN who looks to have been underestimated at 20/1.
He has plenty of stamina on his dam's side and I can't see the son of Notnowcato being inconvenienced by potential soft ground.
Already proven over the trip, he made a good impression when easily seeing off Mark Johnston's smart filly Alta Lilea at Chester last month. She gave him plenty of weight that day - 18lbs - but she is now rated 102 after running pretty close to Wild Coco in the Group 3 Lillie Langtry at Glorious Goodwood.
It's a least a hint that an 8lb rise wasn't too harsh for what was a pretty comprehensive win and with his stamina assured 20s looks too big.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +257.56pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +125.25pts to recommended stakes in 2013.