Fattsota appeals in Wolferton
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on the fourth day of Royal Ascot with Fattsota his headline selection.
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It was very much ladies' day on Thursday as the Queen and Lady Cecil took centre stage thanks to Estimate's thrilling win in the Gold Cup and Riposte's poignant victory in the Ribblesdale.
Friday's action will do well to be as memorable, but the fillies are set to bask in the limelight once again as the Classic generation do battle in the Coronation Stakes.
- 1pt win Mutashaded in 3.05 Ascot at 12/1 (Boylesports) - rapidly improving and it could be significant he's thrown in at the deep end
- 1pt win Siyenica in 3.45 Ascot at 14/1 (Stan James) - worth another chance after last run with stiff mile likely to suit
- 1pt win Fattsota in 4.25 Ascot at 16/1 (General) - loves it at Ascot and didn't handle Epsom last time; huge player
- 1pt win Democretes in 5.35 Ascot at 16/1 (General) - in great form and step back up to seven with headgear on ideal
- 1pt win Baccarat in 5.35 Ascot at 20/1 (BetVictor, Coral) - did well to dead-heat last time with step up to stiff seven looking perfect for him
The Guineas winners, Sky Lantern and Just The Judge, head the betting but they are drawn widest of all on the round track which isn't ideal.
They don't look head and shoulders above their contemporaries anyway so several of their rivals could put it up to the market leaders, including SIYENICA who is worth a small bet at 14s.
She's related to the talented Siyouni and Siyouma and looked a smart prospect herself when winning at Longchamp in April.
Clearly, Alain de Royer-Dupre was suitably impressed as he threw her into Group One company on her next start, in the Prix Saint-Alery back at Longchamp.
Subsequent French Oaks third Silasol won that race and Siyenica took them along before being swamped, Christophe Lemaire looking after her once her chance had gone.
Despite this she was only beaten three lengths and, back over a stiff mile, she's interesting enough in a wide-open contest to invest a little at 14s.
The bet of the day could be in the Wolferton Handicap as I really like the chances of Marco Botti's FATTSOTA who appeals strongly at 16/1.
This horse is an Ascot specialist having won two from two here over 12 furlongs.
He's done most of his racing over that trip but I think he has the pace for ten. He certainly looked to have last time when he wasn't beaten far at Epsom, travelling well but not appearing to handle the track.
The runner-up that day, Area Fifty One, has already franked the form and Fattsota seemed to have plenty left in the tank at the end and he wasn't beaten far.
Back at his favourite track, he looks competitively handicapped and can go very close.
Earlier on the card, I want to be with MUTASHADED in the King Edward VII Stakes at 12/1.
Battle Of Marengo heads the betting but the Derby fourth might struggle here under a penalty after a tough race at Epsom and I'd rather be with the lightly-raced but highly promising Roger Varian-trained colt who won well at Sandown last time.
Admittedly that was only a handicap and the runner-up almost nicked it from the front under an excellent ride from Luke Morris, but Mutashaded just had far too much class and was well on top at the line.
He'll have to step up in a big way to take this, but he's highly progressive and perhaps it's significant the shrewd Varian is prepared to go straight for a big one rather than continuing to climb the ladder.
Finally, I'll take two against the field in the closing Buckingham Palace Stakes in the shape of DEMOCRETES at 16s and BACCARAT at 20s.
The former is not ungenuine by any means, but Richard Hannon puts some first-time blinkers on him and they can help him improve on his last two seconds.
Runner-up over this trip at Goodwood two starts ago, he was hampered that day but finished his race well and looked like a future winner.
Next time at Ascot he was just edged out of it by Yeeow over six, just not quite having the pace of the winner over that trip.
Still, he's in great form and I want to be with him back over seven with the headgear employed.
Richard Fahey can hardly contain his excitement about running Baccarat on Friday and hopefully he'll be going for a double as Sandiva holds very strong claims in the Albany.
Baccarat ran on very strongly over a trip on the sharp side for him at Ripon off a big weight, dead-heating for first with David O'Meara's Sandy Lane, the pair miles clear.
He's gone up 10lbs in the handicap but the rise may well be fair despite the dead-heat, with the step back up to a stiff seven sure to bring about plenty of improvement.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +234.06pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +101.75pts to recommended stakes in 2013.