Chief to star on Dante day
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on day two of the Dante meeting at York and he's backing a pair of 12/1 chances.
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Derby clues are on offer at York in the Dante Stakes on Thursday and with no Telescope on show Greatwood picks up the Highclere baton in the Epsom trial.
Picking between him, Ghuarair and Windhoek isn't easy on their run at Newmarket and the prices tell you as much.
Aidan O'Brien's horses have been sweeping all before them in the Classic trials on both sides of the Irish Sea and it wouldn't be a surprise if Indian Chief proved the best of these.
However, he's going to be a relatively short-price considering what he's actually achieved on the track and it could pay to leave the Dante alone and concentrate on the Betfred Hambleton Stakes.
For at 12/1, York specialist NAJAVO CHIEF makes plenty of appeal.
He's won twice on the Knavesmire and other good placed efforts suggests he loves the track, while he's won here after a break too which augurs well.
The six-year-old hasn't been seen since finishing down the field at Newbury in October but that was over 10 furlongs in heavy ground that wouldn't play to his strengths.
The good thing is the handicapper dropped him 3lbs after that and off a mark of 100 he should be competitive - he's won at York over a mile off marks of 99 and 103 and was placed off 105 the last time he ran here back in August.
Purely from a handicapping point of view he has an obvious chance and in a competitive race he could come with a late charge to land the spoils at a decent price.
Earlier on I can't resist the claims of Andrew Balding's DUNGANNON at 12/1 in the opening Betfred Mobile Sports Handicap.
This horse was unlucky not to win a race last year after creditable efforts in contests like the Wokingham and the Coral Sprint Trophy on the Knavesmire where he was hampered on his way to a five-length sixth.
Still, it means he begins his 2013 campaign on a mark of 93, 2lbs below his last winning mark when he won the Shergar Cup Dash at Ascot over five furlongs on ground with a bit of cut in it.
My one concern is that five furlongs at York might be a bit sharp for him, but hopefully the recent rain will help in that regard while Balding isn't messing about with the booking of Ryan Moore.
He's got races in him off this handicap mark and at double-figure prices it's worth chancing he can go in first time up.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +226.06pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +93.75pts to recommended stakes in 2013.