Olympiad to defy Chester draw
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value in the StanJames.com Chester Cup and he's siding with a 12/1 chance.
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We all know that a low draw at Chester is beneficial with its tight left-handed turns but over the unique trip of 2m 2f 147y in the StanJames.com Chester Cup is a wide berth really that much of a hindrance?
You'll hear plenty say it is in the build-up to Wednesday's race but I've been through the results from the last 20 years and the fact is only twice in that period has a double-digit stall failed to figure in the first four home.
Plenty of horses drawn high have figured in the finish in the last 20 years and at 12/1 I can't resist backing OLYMPIAD to add his name to the list given his overall profile.
Dermot Weld's Galileo five-year-old is a progressive stayer and on his York form from last summer he holds a serious chance.
He won the BetVictor.com Handicap over two miles on the Knavesmire at the Ebor Meeting in August in the style of a very good horse and crucially that career-best effort came on good to firm ground.
The cut in the ground in the Cesarewitch is a possible excuse for his poor run on his last start last year, and, trained for this since, he looks like he could well have another handicap in him off a mark of 95.
He's just 6lb higher than his York win and he travelled so effortlessly that day, beating some smart stayers in the process, you have to think he can resume on an upward curve.
The Chester Cup often goes to a horse making their seasonal debut so that doesn't put me off, though it should be noted half of the field fall into that bracket.
Weld's Rasmeyaa failed to fire in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday but it's a rarity when one of his disappoints on English shores and he can make amends quickly with this classy Sir Robert Ogden-owned horse.
I genuinely think he'd be challenging for second-favouritism if he were drawn in stalls one to eight so 12/1 has to be snapped up and we'll invest at that price each-way.
Countrywide Flame is the main danger and if he translates his improvement over hurdles this winter to the Flat he'll take some beating.
However, I just wonder how he'll get on on the fast ground, conditions we know Olympiad thrives on, and for that reason I'm happy to take him on at the prices.
At bigger prices, Buckland and Theology both looked well-handicapped enough to run big races, but the fancy odds about them have gone in the last few days so we'll rely on the one selection.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +230.06pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +97.75pts to recommended stakes in 2013.