Reach for the Sky at 10/1
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday.
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It didn't quite work out for Richard Hannon in the 2000 Guineas as Dawn Approach stamped his class in the colts' Classic, but he can make amends quickly with SKY LANTERN on Sunday.
Double-figure odds about this classy Group One winner look too big to pass up in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas given conditions look to be turning in her favour.
If forecasts are correct we are in for a warm, dry, day here at Newmarket on Sunday and the ground should be riding pretty fast by the time the fillies line-up for the feature.
Fast ground over a mile looks absolutely ideal for Sky Lantern and of course they are conditions she has faced before in the Juvenile Fillies' Turf at the Breeders' Cup in November.
She finished eighth that day, but didn't come off the bridle after enduring a nightmare passage up the inside and Richard Hughes has revealed he didn't want the same thing to happen to her in the Nell Gwyn, when she was second to Hot Snap.
Listening to him explain that he had to light up her up, switch her off and light her up again as the field came across to her is telling as she just looked to be travelling so well before being passed by Hot Snap in the closing stages.
And the more I look at that race, the more I believe that at the prices she is fair value to reverse the form with Sir Henry Cecil's hot favourite.
Of course Hot Snap deserves to be the market leader, but should Sky Lantern really be more than three times the price? Not for me.
Hot Snap suffered least interference from the howling wind that day and I just feel she was flattered to win like she did, the race just falling into her lap after being held up by Tom Queally.
I can't forget the impression Sky Lantern made as a juvenile, particularly when winning the Group One Moyglare and when chasing home Certify (who would probably be favourite here if not for her ban) in the Sweet Solera.
I thought she ran a very good race in the Nell Gwyn considering how the race panned out and taking into account that was very much a trial for her, with plenty of improvement expected, she looks a decent bit of business at 10/1.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +221.06pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).