Real attack to give Madrid chance

  • By: Ben Linfoot
  • Last Updated: April 29 2013, 16:01 BST

Spanish football is still dusting itself down after two almighty beatings at the hands of German opposition in the Champions League semi-final first legs, with an all Bundesliga final a 1/5 shot heading into the return fixtures.

Ronaldo: Can do his bit against Dortmund
Ronaldo: Can do his bit against Dortmund

It's hard to envisage Barcelona overturning a 4-0 deficit when they host Bayern Munich, but at least Real Madrid have an away goal when they try and come back from 4-1 down against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday night.

They need to win and win by three or more to have any chance of progressing and the bookies feel they can at least win on the night. The La Liga side are 4/6 to be victorious in the second leg and an awesome home record suggests those odds are about right.

Madrid are 40 games unbeaten at the Bernabéu and have scored 78 goals in 26 games at home this season, an average of three per game. They have also struck three goals or more at home in each of their last four matches.

This scoring power is obviously powered by the phenomenal talent that is Cristiano Ronaldo. You could actually argue that the 4/7 Ladbrokes offer about him scoring anytime is a spot of value given his stats.

The Portuguese has scored 12 goals in 11 Champions League matches this campaign, and if you go further back he has found the net 21 times in his last 18 Champions League appearances. This season he has also had 52 attempts on target in the Champions League and has scored 51 goals in 50 games in all competitions for Madrid.

That 4/7 isn't bad at all.

However, we'll resist going in heavy on Ronaldo and try and profit from his overall influence by backing Madrid to score three or more at 11/8 with Sky Bet.

We've already mentioned their scoring power at home and while I can't see them being good enough defensively to progress to the final their offensive talent can do their part of the job.

Dortmund conceded two against Malaga in the last round before their incredible late comeback and you wouldn't consider their defence to be their main strength. They have conceded 36 goals in the Bundesliga - on a par with 10th-placed Mainz, with their attacking abilities undoubtedly their key asset.

With this set to be the defining game in Real Madrid's season, and perhaps Jose Mourinho's reign at the club if they pull it off, expect Los Meringues to go out all guns blazing.

The 4/1 about them to qualify doesn't appeal, though, given they aren't to be relied upon at the back, with 19 of their 33 victories this season achieved despite conceding a goal.

With Robert Lewandowski in red-hot form it's not hard to envisage the German side getting on the scoresheet, especially when you consider Madrid will be chasing the game from the off.

But odds of 8/5 about Real Madrid winning 'not to nil' are too skinny and is a case of over-complicating things. While their defensive frailties are enough to put us off siding with them to qualify, their attacking prowess is a potent force and scoring three looks well within their world-class capabilities.

  • Preview posted at 1555 BST on 29/04/2013.