Numbers Game: Wigan too short
Matt Briggs is back with his Numbers Game and Norwich are the Value Bet to win at Wigan this weekend.
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The Numbers Game's Famous Last Words provided three odds-against winners from three selections last time out with Peterborough (85/40), Colchester (2/1) and Brighton (13/8) all winning. The Banker also returned a winner with Orient (21/20) sinking Carlisle
This Easter weekend sees @MattPBriggs plump for the 9/4 Canaries to win (draw no bet) at Wigan, but bookies Betfred have reported support for the Latics. The Banker is a real value punt too with in-form Bristol Rovers a tasty-looking evens to beat York - a view backed up by the men in the know at bet365, while all the usual stats and pointers return.
Norwich to beat Wigan DNB at Wigan 9/4.
It's about this time of year that Wigan wake up and kick themselves clear of the relegation zone, but at evens at home to Norwich they make little appeal. With just three wins at home this season it would be a brave punter to invest his hard earned in the Latics. The hosts have not been a shorter price on home soil all season and they look very short to sink the Canaries. In fact the last time the sides met at The DW Stadium in August 2011, Wigan were 7/5 shots and they failed to deliver on that day with the game ending in a draw. Norwich have only won once away from home, but they have chalked up seven draws and they are worth chancing draw no bet to nick a win on Saturday.
Sky Bet say Manchester United are now 8/13 as Sunderland confirm that they will be without Steven Fletcher and Lee Cattermole for the remainder of the season. An intriguing game from a betting point of view as a victory is not essential for the visitors as they leave one eye on Monday's FA Cup replay at Stamford Bridge.
Middlesborough have been well supported away at Wolves on Saturday as they look to re-ignite their struggling promotion push. Wolves have drifted from 6/4 to 8/5 despite their recent upturn in form.
Brentford have been huge drifters to see off Notts County at home and are now 5/6 from our opening offer of 8/13. Another must win game for the Bees but they have seen little support.
Betfred say the punters are coming out early for this Easter extravaganza of football and already Man United have been heavily backed. The Reds are currently available at 8/13 but expected to go off shorter when every punter in the land sticks the Champions elect in their accas. Sunderland, on the back of the news of Steven Fletcher and Lee Catermole out for the season are drifting like this unseasonal snow. And it could worse for Sunderland this Easter if Wigan win. Roberto Martinez's side would then just be one point behind Sunderland and the Latics are getting backed to beat Norwich at 10/11.
bet365 say by their high standards Leicester are on a poor run, but punters want to be with them against Millwall and I suspect Chris Wood will be popular with goalscorer punters, whilst its MK Dons for the money in League One - they have been very well backed to beat Hartlepool.
In League Two our customers are expecting further improvement from Bristol Rovers, who I must admit look a good bet to beat struggling York, whilst punters are keen to oppose Morecambe who travel to Oxford.
Man Utd (7/10) won last six in Premier League and travel to Sunderland (5/1).
N Forest (23/20) won last six in Championship and host Brighton (11/4).
Bournemouth (6/5) won last three in League One and travel to Colchester (11/4) (Fri).
Reading (14/1) lost last five in Premier League and travel to Arsneal (2/7).
Middlesbrough (19/10) lost last three in Championship and travel to Wolves (13/8).
Scunthorpe (9/5) lost last four in League One and host Leyton Orient (17/10) (Fri).
Sky Bet: Form horses Leyton Orient travel to Scunthorpe and look a good bet at 6/4 to take the win. The O's, who are unbeaten in seven, face a side who have lost six of their last seven games a late play-off push is certainly on the cards for Russell Slade's men.
Chelsea look a solid lay at evens away at Southampton as, like Manchester United, will have one eye on the FA Cup tie that is coming up. Southampton do not look a side to be underestimated, especially after their superb win against Liverpool last time out at St. Mary's.
Bet365: I suspect the Man Utd/Arsenal double will be popular, but I fancy at least one slip-up, maybe two at odds-on from either Man City, Wigan, Everton or Liverpool. Of all the outsiders it is Newcastle that have caught the eye at big prices and I wouldnt write off Stoke at Everton and keep your eye on Robert Huth there.
Betfred: Chelsea are easy to back at Southampton at around evens while there's been a bit of money for Man City at 1/3.
Bookies turnover will be dramatically boosted this weekend by the FA Cup replay on Monday. If Man United win comfortably on Saturday lunchtime and they use the squad, the dough will come for Sir Alex Ferguson's men.
Sunderland (5/1) have won just one of 23 Prem games v Manchester United (7/10).
Arsenal (2/7) have won all 11 of their competitive meetings v Reading (14/1).
Man City (4/11) have won 10 of last 12 Prem matches v Newcastle (10/1).
Chelsea (23/20) are unbeaten in last seven Prem games v Southampton (14/5).
Tottenham (11/8) have won three of last four meetings v Swansea (23/10).
Everton (4/7) have won just one of last seven Prem games v Stoke City (7/1).
QPR (16/5) have won just one of their last seven meetings v Fulham (evens) (Mon).
Bristol Rovers to beat York at evens (Fri).
These two sides are heading in different directions and the hosts look like 'good things' to see off struggling York. Rovers are one of the form teams in League Two at home - despite their mid-table standing they've won six of their last seven at the Memorial Stadium. High-flying Burton, Port Vale and Exeter have all been turned over and Nigel Worthington's men face a tough task to halt their winless run of 15 games.
Bournemouth's Brett Pitman has three in three and is 7/5 to score at Colchester.
Yeovil's Paddy Madden has two in three and is 5/4 to score v Walsall.
Accrington's Lee Molyneux has four in three and is 5/1 to score at Wycombe.
Crewe to beat Bury at 9/5 (Fri).
Bury only had four substitues in the defeat at Bournemouth last weekend and boss Kevin Blackwell confirmed the Shakers picked up two more injuries. One of those players is midfielder Craig Jones, who is out for the season.
Yeovil to beat Walsall at 11/8 (Fri).
Walsall top scorer Will Grigg is only 50-50 to face Yeovil, while the Glovers will hand a debut to highly-rated frontman Angelo Balanta.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
Barnsley to beat Sheff Weds DNB at 7/5 (Fri).
After the recent win over Watford, Barnsley boss David Flitcroft said: "I'm completely buzzing, we set out a game plan and it really worked. I don't know many times Watford have not scored (this season), and I'm going to look that up when I get back to the office. We've kept a clean sheet against Watford, this can't be underestimated; the size of this performance, the level, the hunger, the desire that I spoke about before the game, it was just evident."
Millwall to beat Leicester DNB at 14/5 (Fri).
Speaking after the defeat to Derby, Leicester boss Nigel Pearson said: "We didn't play very well and we are in a bad run of form at the moment. There were too many mistakes. We didn't play with any authority in possession and conceded two poor goals. We huffed and puffed in the second half and had quite a lot of possession but didn't show the quality to rectify the situation. We have got to get back to basics during the international break because we have worked too hard to get ourselves in a decent position to put it in jeopardy."