Kane looks able at 33/1

England play their first Test of a double-Ashes year against New Zealand in Dunedin, with the action getting under way late on Tuesday UK time.

The tourists haven't had an ideal build-up, going down to a three-wicket defeat against a strong New Zealand XI in the tour match at Queenstown this week.

But that's not all bad. The quality of preparation is generally more important than the results in these tour games, and England certainly got some high-quality practice in.

They won't worry about Kevin Pietersen's lack of runs - he rarely performs in the warm-ups - but would've liked Nick Compton to make a few after deciding to stick with the Somerset opener rather than promote Joe Root.

We've backed England to win the series 3-0 in our outright preview and are still pretty happy with our position there; even after that warm-up defeat the 10/3 has come in to a best of just 5/2 which looks closer to the right price.

With England firmly onside, then, we'll look elsewhere for a bet on the first Test and take a minimum-stakes, big-price gamble on the top New Zealand bowler market.

The man we're siding with is part-time off-spinner Kane Williamson.

Yes. Speculative. But bear with me: here's the thinking behind it.

New Zealand announced an initial 12-man squad for the first Test, with the consensus that Tom Latham and Hamish Rutherford were competing for one place at the top of the order.

Since then, left-arm seamer Neil Wagner has been added to the list after impressing against England this week.

That raises the prospect of New Zealand naming a four-man pace attack, something made even more likely when you look at the identity of the specialist spinner in the group.

Bruce Martin is a journeyman 32-year-old left-arm spinner who has never been capped in any form of international cricket and whose wickets in New Zealand first-class cricket this winter have cost over 40 runs apiece.

My hunch is he won't play.

And if New Zealand do go in with an all-seam frontline attack, they'll be looking to someone to bowl maybe 10-12 overs a day to fill in the gaps. They may be looking for that man to offer a significant change from the pace frontline, rather than, say, the medium-pace of Dean Brownlie. Step forward Kane.

He may have only eight wickets in his 20 Tests to date, but he's taken three of those in the six home games he's played at a pretty impressive strike-rate of 61.

And he's not up against stellar opposition in the New Zealand pace attack. Trent Boult and Doug Bracewell both average over 31, while Tim Southee picks up his Test wickets at 35 apiece and Wagner at 68.

While we don't expect him to bowl long spells, if England rack up a big score - and there's a very good chance of that - and one of the seamers has an off day then Williamson could find himself with plenty of opportunities to get among the wickets.

Even if his chances are limited, a couple of wickets could be enough to get him into contention.

That is, admittedly, a lot of ifs, buts, coulds and maybes - and a definite no bet at 14/1 offered in places - but I think it's worth having some interest in the answer at the 33/1 available with Boylesports and Stan James.

Where you place your bet is up to you, but it's worth noting a potentially significant difference in how the market is settled. If two or more bowlers share the top-bowling honours in terms of wickets, Stan James will apply dead-heat rules while Boylesports settle the winner as the bowler to have conceded the fewest runs.

There are arguments to be made either way here, but as we're mainly punting on Williamson nipping in with a couple of cheap wickets from a cheap spell, we'll head to Boylesports and count on him conceding fewest runs having bowled less than his rivals.

• The match is being televised live in the UK on Sky Sports and gets under way at 2130 GMT on Tuesday.